Michael Healy-Rae is possibly on course to secure the highest vote in the country in the general election as he is poised to exceed the quota by a massive 10 per cent, according to a TG4 Kerry constituency poll, the results of which were released to KillarneyToday.com this Tuesday night.
The four outgoing TDs in the county are all tipped to return to Dáil Éireann with the fifth seat – vacated by Fine Gael’s Brendan Griffin – looking like it will be a head-to-head showdown between his party colleague Billy O’Shea and Fianna Fáil’s Michael Cahill.
The poll predicts that Norma Foley (FF), Pa Daly (SF) and Danny Healy-Rae (FF) will all get past the post but they will be well adrift of the expected poll-topper Michael Healy-Rae
The results of a TG4/Ipsos B&A constituency poll for Kerry show Michael Healy-Rae with a whopping 27 per cent of the vote, putting him far ahead of any other candidate and that would see him figuring among the highest vote-getters in the country on Friday.
His brother Danny Healy-Rae comes in fifth in the poll, on 10 per cent, but Michael’s anticipated surplus of almost 40 per cent, according to this poll, will transfer to Danny guaranteeing both Healy-Raes a comfortable return to the Dáil.
The Kerry constituency is a five-seater, with a quota of 17 per cent.
Outgoing Minister for Education Norma Foley polls second on 14 per cent and with transfers from the other Fianna Fáil candidates, Michael Cahill (on seven per cent) and Linda Gordon Kelleher (on three per cent), she will retain her seat in Kerry.
The combined Fianna Fáil vote is ahead of its 2020 tally, which is a good performance given that former TD John Brassil has retired.
Newcomer Billy O’Shea is polling well on 14 per cent – right up there alongside Minister Foley – and while the Fine Gael vote appears to be down marginally in Kerry, the two main government parties are transferring well to each other, even across geographical lines.
Sinn Féin’s Pa Daly is on 12 per cent with running mate Stephanie O’Shea on three per cent, giving the party a combined 15 per cent in Kerry and not quite a quota.
Similar to Fine Gael, the Sinn Fein vote appears to be slightly lower this time but they are holding their own.
The Green Party’s Cleo Murphy is on three per cent and the Labour Party, which held a seat in Kerry for decades – courtesy of the Moynihan and Spring dynasties – is performing poorly at just two per cent of the poll.
Aontú is on just one per cent alongside Thomas McEllistrim (Ind Irl); Cian Prendiville (PBP), Brandon Begley (IFP), Michelle Keand (Ind) and Mary Fitzgibbbon (Ind) with John O’Leary (Ind) behind them.
This TG4/Ipsos B&A poll was conducted on Friday and Saturday of last week, a full seven days before election day. It is worth noting that the sample was of just 521 people which attaches a margin of error of about plus or minus four percentage points.
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